Futures fair value & basis
Work out the fair price of a stock or index future from spot, interest and time, and see whether the market price is rich or cheap against it.
Runs entirely in your browserRuns entirely on your device — nothing you type is sent anywhere. Educational only, and not investment advice.
How to use this calculator
Each step names a control you will find on screen above.
- Spot price
The current price of the stock or index in the cash market.
- Futures price
The last traded price of the future for the expiry you are looking at.
- Interest rate
The annual rate of money over the period — a short-term rate such as the T-bill yield is a reasonable proxy. It is the cost of carrying the position until expiry.
- Days to expiry
Calendar days from today to the expiry date.
- Dividends before expiry
Any dividend per share (or index points of dividend) with a record date before expiry. The future holder does not receive it, so it is subtracted.
Worked example: An index future 25 days from expiry
An index is at 24,000 and its future trades at 24,160 with 25 days to expiry. Money costs 7% a year and no dividends are due.
What to enter
- Spot price
- ₹24,000
- Futures price
- ₹24,160
- Interest rate
- 7%
- Days to expiry
- 25 days
- Dividends before expiry
- ₹0
What it shows you
- Fair value
- ₹24,115.07
- Actual basis
- +160.00
- Fair basis
- +115.07
- Implied carry / yr
- 9.73%
Where this is taught
A calculator gives you a number. These explain what the number means and when it misleads you.
- Technical Analysis13 minFutures pricing and the basisA futures price is not a forecast — it is arithmetic anchored to the spot price by the cost of carry. Understanding the basis explains contango, backwardation, and why the future and the stock must meet at expiry.
- Market Basics11 minCurrency and commodity markets in IndiaWhat trades on MCX and the currency segment, why the rupee and crude move your equity portfolio, and why most investors should watch these markets without trading them.
- Technical Analysis14 minExpiry week: rollovers, cost of carry and physical settlementSince 2019 every stock derivative open at expiry settles in shares. Delivery margins ramp over four sessions, on a calendar that owes nothing to the business.
- Technical Analysis12 minGIFT Nifty and the seventeen hours the market is shutIndian equities are shut while America trades a full session. GIFT Nifty fills the gap — and says far less about tomorrow’s open than people assume.
- Technical Analysis10 minMACDTwo moving averages, a signal line and a histogram — what each component adds, and why crossovers alone are not a strategy.