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Risk & Psychology
The part that actually decides your results

Risk & Psychology

23 modules · about 25 hours

0%
StartWhat risk actually means
About this track

Position sizing, stop-losses, portfolio construction, and the behavioural biases that make otherwise intelligent people do the opposite of what they planned. This is the track that determines whether the other two are worth anything.

This track covers the two things that decide most real outcomes and get the least attention: risk management and trading psychology. It teaches position sizing, where to place a stop and why they fail, expectancy and thinking in probabilities, the behavioural biases that quietly cost Indian retail investors the most, and how to measure your own performance honestly with XIRR rather than a flattering headline return.

The uncomfortable truth running through it is that most losses come from sizing and behaviour, not from misreading a chart or a balance sheet. A positive-expectancy method still hands you losing streaks, and surviving them — financially and emotionally — is the skill that separates people who last from people who blow up.

Modules

01Risk management5 lessons · 53 min

What risk actually is, position sizing, stop-losses, borrowed money and portfolio construction — the mechanical rules that keep you in the game.

  1. Up nextWhat risk actually means11m
  2. Position sizing: the only thing you fully control11m
  3. Stop-losses, and exactly when they fail10m
  4. Borrowed money, and why it changes the arithmetic11m
  5. Building a portfolio that survives10m
02Behaviour & process5 lessons · 55 min
03Your own process5 lessons · 54 min

Allocating to goals rather than to feelings, putting each month’s money to work by rule, handling being wrong, cutting the noise, and writing the plan that ties it all together.

  1. Goal-based asset allocation11m
  2. Where each month’s money goes10m
  3. Being wrong, well10m
  4. Your information diet10m
  5. Building your own process13m
04Measuring & mastering6 lessons · 64 min

Judging your own performance honestly, the value of doing nothing, resisting FOMO, family money, learning from great investors, and knowing when to stop.

  1. Measuring your own performance honestly12m
  2. The value of doing nothing10m
  3. FOMO and the people around you10m
  4. Investing as an Indian family10m
  5. Learning from great investors, carefully11m
  6. Knowing when to stop11m
05Decisions in real life6 lessons · 61 min
06Discipline under pressure9 lessons · 87 min
07Knowing yourself8 lessons · 79 min
08Expectations and enough6 lessons · 64 min

Realistic return expectations, when to delegate to an adviser, recovering after a large loss, teaching children about money, and working out what "enough" actually is.

  1. What return should you actually expect?12m
  2. Advisers, PMS and knowing when to delegate12m
  3. After a big loss11m
  4. Teaching children about money10m
  5. Enough: the number almost nobody calculates11m
  6. The planning fallacy: why your timeline is always too optimistic8m
09Living with it5 lessons · 55 min

What your first year is really like, how much time investing deserves, deciding money with a partner, the ethical lines, and recognising a bubble from inside it.

  1. Your first year, honestly11m
  2. How much time this deserves10m
  3. Deciding money with a partner11m
  4. The lines worth not crossing11m
  5. What a bubble feels like from inside12m
10Resilience6 lessons · 64 min

Surviving an income shock, the sandwich generation, account security, what a long winning streak does to judgement, and switching from saving to spending.

  1. When the income stops12m
  2. Supporting parents while building your own future11m
  3. Keeping your accounts safe11m
  4. After a long run of being right11m
  5. Switching from saving to spending11m
  6. Present bias: why later never quite comes8m
11People and circumstances5 lessons · 57 min

When one holding becomes most of your portfolio, advice and requests from family, accountability without a boss, investing through a personal crisis, and receiving an inheritance.

  1. When one holding becomes most of your portfolio12m
  2. Advice, and requests, from family11m
  3. Accountability when nobody is watching11m
  4. When life, not the market, is the problem11m
  5. Receiving an inheritance12m
12The long middle5 lessons · 54 min

Boredom in a working plan, watching other people’s returns, knowing when changing your mind is discipline, what money says about you, and what teaching it to someone else reveals.

  1. Boredom is the real risk in a working plan10m
  2. Watching someone else’s returns11m
  3. When changing your mind is discipline, not weakness11m
  4. What you think money says about you11m
  5. Explaining it to someone else11m
13Judgement11 lessons · 103 min
14Starting and stopping5 lessons · 55 min

When research becomes avoidance, starting at forty-five, when the amount feels too small to matter, giving money away, and who you are when you no longer have to work.

  1. When research becomes avoidance11m
  2. Starting at forty-five12m
  3. When the amount feels too small to matter10m
  4. Giving money away11m
  5. Who you are when you no longer have to work11m
15Constraints you did not choose5 lessons · 65 min

Why most holdings disappoint by design, trading windows for company employees, funds that change their fundamental attributes, whether a long horizon removes risk, and the guarantees that sit on your own balance sheet.

  1. Why most of what you own will disappoint13m
  2. Investing when you are not allowed to trade13m
  3. When the fund changes underneath you12m
  4. Does a long horizon actually remove risk?13m
  5. The liabilities that are not yours until they are14m
16Decisions that keep coming back5 lessons · 67 min

Adding to a holding you already own, choosing what to sell when you need money, the second property, the commitments that renew themselves without being re-decided, and the accumulated portfolio nobody ever designed.

  1. Adding to something you already own13m
  2. Choosing what to sell when you need the money13m
  3. The pull of a second property14m
  4. The commitments that renew themselves13m
  5. The portfolio your younger self left you14m
17Taking a decision apart5 lessons · 67 min

Grading a decision whose outcome you already know, pricing the cost of changing your mind, the vocabulary that decides before you do, deadlines set by the other side, and what to do when somebody competent disagrees with you.

  1. Process failure or outcome failure: grading a decision whose result you already know14m
  2. What it costs to change your mind13m
  3. The words you decide in13m
  4. Deciding against somebody else’s clock13m
  5. When someone you trust reaches the opposite conclusion14m
18What other people know5 lessons · 67 min

The loss nobody at home has been told about, the decision taken in front of an audience, somebody else’s money sitting in your hands, watching a person you have no authority over lose theirs, and the plan that has to keep working on the day you cannot run it.

  1. The loss nobody at home knows about13m
  2. Deciding in front of an audience13m
  3. Running somebody else’s money14m
  4. Watching somebody lose money you cannot stop them losing13m
  5. The plan somebody else has to run14m
19When nothing happens5 lessons · 68 min

The class of decisions whose success is invisible: eleven years of premiums and no claim, cover dropped in the one year it was needed, the near miss stored as evidence of skill, the holding chosen to lag, and how to review a decision that produced no result at all.

  1. The year in which nothing went wrong13m
  2. The cover that lapses in the year it was needed13m
  3. The near miss you filed as a success14m
  4. Holding the part that is meant to lag14m
  5. Keeping score when nothing happened14m
20Between deciding and done5 lessons · 67 min

The interval nobody plans for: a decision going stale in your notes, a weekend that manufactures certainty without adding a fact, an instruction left standing by somebody you no longer are, a five-step plan abandoned after step one, and the gap between what you decided and what the record says you did.

  1. The decision still sitting in your notes13m
  2. The sixty-six hours in which you cannot act13m
  3. The instruction left standing by somebody you no longer are13m
  4. The plan you only half executed14m
  5. What the record says you did14m
21The decisions nobody took4 lessons · 57 min

The same rupee promised to two plans that both read as funded, an assumption that hardened into the family’s retirement number, a fact that lost a qualifier at every retelling until nothing in it could be checked, and a rule written after one bad afternoon that has been running unexamined ever since.

  1. The rupee counted twice14m
  2. The number that was only ever an assumption14m
  3. The version of the fact that reached you14m
  4. The rule you wrote after the one time it happened15m
22The numbers you are shown4 lessons · 58 min

An asset with no quoted price and therefore no review, a fee that is deducted rather than paid and therefore never compared, an allocation measured against one account out of five, and the peak that quietly became the number your household grades itself against.

  1. The holding that never shows a price14m
  2. The cost that never arrives as a payment14m
  3. The allocation nobody has ever measured15m
  4. The peak you measure from15m
23The shape the question arrived in5 lessons · 65 min

A two-minute form that set a household’s equity share for four years and could not ask the two questions that mattered; the observation interval that decides what fraction of a fund’s history looks like a loss; the word "profit" doing work that no rupee limit was ever asked to do; and the difference between the return a fund earned and the return your instalments earned, which on a fund whose ten-year return was exactly zero comes out at about +6.5% a year down one path and about −7.6% down another.

  1. The form that set your allocation14m
  2. How often you look14m
  3. The money you have labelled profit14m
  4. The rate you were quoted, and the money that arrived monthly15m
  5. The ostrich effect: not looking when it hurts8m
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The part that actually decides your results

Risk & Psychology

Position sizing, stop-losses, portfolio construction, and the behavioural biases that make otherwise intelligent people do the opposite of what they planned. This is the track that determines whether the other two are worth anything.

Start with “What risk actually means” →
Progress0 / 130
Lessons
130
Modules
23
Reading time
24.8 hrs
Quiz questions
179

This track covers the two things that decide most real outcomes and get the least attention: risk management and trading psychology. It teaches position sizing, where to place a stop and why they fail, expectancy and thinking in probabilities, the behavioural biases that quietly cost Indian retail investors the most, and how to measure your own performance honestly with XIRR rather than a flattering headline return.

The uncomfortable truth running through it is that most losses come from sizing and behaviour, not from misreading a chart or a balance sheet. A positive-expectancy method still hands you losing streaks, and surviving them — financially and emotionally — is the skill that separates people who last from people who blow up.

Module 1

Risk management

What risk actually is, position sizing, stop-losses, borrowed money and portfolio construction — the mechanical rules that keep you in the game.

Module 2

Behaviour & process

The biases that make you do the opposite of your plan, and the systems that make them expensive to act on.

Module 3

Your own process

Allocating to goals rather than to feelings, putting each month’s money to work by rule, handling being wrong, cutting the noise, and writing the plan that ties it all together.

Module 4

Measuring & mastering

Judging your own performance honestly, the value of doing nothing, resisting FOMO, family money, learning from great investors, and knowing when to stop.

Module 5

Decisions in real life

Probabilistic thinking, allocating across life stages, handling a windfall, the home-loan question, and the physiology behind bad decisions.

Module 6

Discipline under pressure

Overtrading, holding conviction without becoming stubborn, the incentives behind free advice, the comparison trap, and how to argue seriously against your own position.

11 min

Overtrading: the cost of needing to act

Most people trade far more than their edge justifies, because activity feels like work. What it costs, why boredom is the real driver, and how to build a process that tolerates stillness.

IntermediateOvertradingAction bias
12 min

Conviction without stubbornness

You need conviction to hold through drawdowns and flexibility to abandon a thesis that has failed. They feel identical from the inside — here is how to tell them apart.

AdvancedConvictionThesis
11 min

Who profits from your attention

Free market advice is paid for by someone. Tracing the incentive behind each source explains most of what you are shown, and most of what you are not.

BeginnerConflict of interestRegistered Investment Adviser
10 min

The comparison trap

Your returns are absolute; your feelings about them are relative. Measuring yourself against the wrong benchmark is how satisfied investors talk themselves into bad decisions.

IntermediateBenchmarkRelative performance
11 min

Arguing seriously against yourself

A pre-mortem assumes the investment has already failed and asks why. It is the cheapest risk tool available, and almost nobody uses it because it feels like inviting bad luck.

IntermediatePre-mortemRed teaming
8 min

The dopamine loop: when a trading app becomes a slot machine

The red-and-green ticker, the pull-to-refresh, the confetti on a trade — these borrow the exact mechanics that make slot machines addictive. How the loop works, and how to design your way out of it.

IntermediateVariable rewardGamification
8 min

Recency bias: the last thing that happened feels permanent

In a long bull run, falls feel impossible; at the bottom of a crash, recovery feels unimaginable. Recency bias is the mind treating the recent past as the template for the future — and it peaks exactly when it costs most.

IntermediateRecency biasExtrapolation
8 min

The illusion of control: effort that changes nothing

People throw dice harder when they want a high number. Investors watch the screen all day and trade constantly, feeling in charge — when the market could not care less. Why more activity feels like more control, and usually costs.

IntermediateIllusion of controlOvertrading
8 min

Negativity bias: why a red day hurts more than a green day helps

Bad hits harder than good. A fall of a given size feels worse than a rise of the same size feels nice, and alarming news grips your attention while quiet progress slips past. Left unmanaged, that asymmetry pushes investors into over-caution and panic.

IntermediateNegativity biasBad is stronger than good
Module 7

Knowing yourself

Separating luck from skill, what changes when the sums get large, environment design over willpower, living with regret, and the money beliefs you inherited.

12 min

How long before you know if you are any good?

Markets give feedback that is delayed, noisy and often misleading. The sample size required to distinguish skill from luck is far larger than anyone expects.

AdvancedSample sizeSignal and noise
11 min

What changes when the amounts get large

The same percentage feels entirely different at ₹5 lakh and ₹5 crore. Why people who traded well small often trade badly big, and how to grow into the size.

IntermediatePosition sizingLoss aversion
11 min

Designing an environment instead of relying on willpower

Discipline is a finite resource and markets are built to drain it. Change the environment and you need much less of it.

IntermediateDecision fatigueEnvironment design
11 min

Regret: sold too early, held too long

Regret is the emotion that distorts investing decisions most, and the only one that operates on trades you never made.

IntermediateRegret aversionCounterfactual
11 min

Where your instincts about money came from

Most financial reflexes were formed long before you saw a stock chart. Naming them explains behaviour that no amount of market knowledge has managed to change.

BeginnerMoney scriptRisk tolerance
7 min

The endowment effect: why what you own feels worth more

The moment a stock is yours, you value it more than the identical stock you do not own — which is why it is so much harder to sell than to buy. Where the bias comes from, and the one question that cuts through it.

IntermediateEndowment effectLoss aversion
8 min

Self-attribution: skill on the way up, luck on the way down

When a stock you picked doubles, you were brilliant; when it halves, the market was irrational. Self-attribution bias is that convenient split — and it quietly turns a bull market into overconfidence.

IntermediateSelf-attribution biasOverconfidence
8 min

Projection bias: assuming today’s feelings will be tomorrow’s

We plan for a future self who shares our current mood — calm when we are calm, brave when we are brave. Projection bias is that quiet assumption, and the market specialises in changing the mood between the plan and the moment.

IntermediateProjection biasRisk tolerance
Module 8

Expectations and enough

Realistic return expectations, when to delegate to an adviser, recovering after a large loss, teaching children about money, and working out what "enough" actually is.

12 min

What return should you actually expect?

Most plans fail because the number at the top was wrong. Where equity returns come from, what is reasonable in India, and why your own return will be lower than the fund's.

BeginnerExpected returnNominal return
12 min

Advisers, PMS and knowing when to delegate

Doing it yourself is not a virtue if it is not working. What each type of adviser actually is in India, how they are paid, and when handing over is the right call.

IntermediateRegistered Investment AdviserDistributor
11 min

After a big loss

The decisions taken in the weeks after a serious loss usually cost more than the loss itself. What to do first, what to avoid, and how to come back properly.

IntermediateDrawdownRevenge trading
10 min

Teaching children about money

Financial habits form long before anyone opens a demat account. What actually transfers, what does not, and the few things worth doing deliberately.

BeginnerMoney scriptFinancial literacy
11 min

Enough: the number almost nobody calculates

Most people invest without ever working out what they are investing toward. The number is calculable, and knowing it changes almost every decision downstream.

IntermediateFinancial independenceWithdrawal rate
8 min

The planning fallacy: why your timeline is always too optimistic

We plan for the version of the future where nothing goes wrong — even though something always does, and even though we know it. The planning fallacy is why financial timelines slip, and why the fix is to plan from how similar plans actually went, not from the best case.

IntermediatePlanning fallacyOutside view
Module 9

Living with it

What your first year is really like, how much time investing deserves, deciding money with a partner, the ethical lines, and recognising a bubble from inside it.

Module 10

Resilience

Surviving an income shock, the sandwich generation, account security, what a long winning streak does to judgement, and switching from saving to spending.

Module 11

People and circumstances

When one holding becomes most of your portfolio, advice and requests from family, accountability without a boss, investing through a personal crisis, and receiving an inheritance.

Module 12

The long middle

Boredom in a working plan, watching other people’s returns, knowing when changing your mind is discipline, what money says about you, and what teaching it to someone else reveals.

Module 13

Judgement

The stories markets tell themselves, second-order thinking, knowing the edge of your own competence, writing an investment policy, and what the money is actually for.

12 min

The stories the market tells itself

Prices move on numbers. Which numbers people look at, and what they take them to mean, is decided by a story — and the story changes faster than the business does.

AdvancedNarrativeReflexivity
11 min

Second-order thinking: and then what?

The first consequence of any event is obvious and already priced. Everything worth having is in the second and third, which almost nobody works through.

AdvancedSecond-order thinkingConsensus
11 min

The edge of what you actually understand

The boundary matters far more than the size. How to find yours honestly, what to do about the exciting things outside it, and why "I read about it" is not inside.

IntermediateCircle of competenceOverconfidence
11 min

Writing your own rules down, before you need them

One page, written calmly, that decides in advance what you will do when you are not calm. It is the cheapest risk control available and almost nobody has one.

IntermediateInvestment policy statementRebalancing band
11 min

What the money is actually for

The last question, and the one that should have been first. What a corpus buys beyond a number, and why so many people who reach the number keep going anyway.

IntermediateFinancial independenceHedonic adaptation
7 min

The framing effect: the same choice, worded two ways

“90% of funds fail to beat the index” and “one in ten beats it” are the same fact — and they pull you in opposite directions. How the wording of a choice quietly decides it, and how to word your way back to neutral.

IntermediateFraming effectLoss aversion
8 min

The availability heuristic: vivid beats likely

We judge how likely something is by how easily an example springs to mind — so a dramatic, memorable event feels far more probable than a dull, common one. Why that misfires with money, and how base rates fix it.

IntermediateAvailability heuristicProbability neglect
8 min

The peak-end rule: how you remember a stock is not how you held it

Your memory does not average an experience — it keeps the most intense moment and the ending, and throws away the rest. That shortcut quietly decides which strategies you repeat and which you abandon, often for the wrong reasons.

IntermediatePeak-end ruleRemembered experience
8 min

The halo effect: mistaking a great company for a great stock

One strong impression — a beloved product, a charismatic founder — spreads a glow over everything else, and you find yourself assuming a wonderful company must be a wonderful investment. Those are two different questions, and the halo blurs them.

IntermediateHalo effectGreat company vs great stock
8 min

Zero-risk bias: the seductive pull of eliminating a risk entirely

There is a special comfort in taking a risk all the way down to zero — even a small one — that a bigger, smarter reduction of a larger risk cannot match. Zero-risk bias is that pull, and it routinely leaves the risk that actually matters completely unaddressed.

IntermediateZero-risk biasCertainty effect
8 min

Ambiguity aversion: preferring a known risk to an unknown one

People will take a gamble whose odds they know over one whose odds are unclear, even when the murky bet might be better. Ambiguity aversion is that preference for the measurable — and it keeps investors huddled in the familiar while better options go unexamined.

IntermediateAmbiguity aversionEllsberg paradox
Module 14

Starting and stopping

When research becomes avoidance, starting at forty-five, when the amount feels too small to matter, giving money away, and who you are when you no longer have to work.

Module 15

Constraints you did not choose

Why most holdings disappoint by design, trading windows for company employees, funds that change their fundamental attributes, whether a long horizon removes risk, and the guarantees that sit on your own balance sheet.

Module 16

Decisions that keep coming back

Adding to a holding you already own, choosing what to sell when you need money, the second property, the commitments that renew themselves without being re-decided, and the accumulated portfolio nobody ever designed.

Module 17

Taking a decision apart

Grading a decision whose outcome you already know, pricing the cost of changing your mind, the vocabulary that decides before you do, deadlines set by the other side, and what to do when somebody competent disagrees with you.

Module 18

What other people know

The loss nobody at home has been told about, the decision taken in front of an audience, somebody else’s money sitting in your hands, watching a person you have no authority over lose theirs, and the plan that has to keep working on the day you cannot run it.

13 min

The loss nobody at home knows about

The moment a position becomes a secret it stops being an investment decision. What concealment does to sizing, to holding periods and to the size of the conversation you are postponing.

IntermediateEscalation of commitmentRevenge trading
13 min

Deciding in front of an audience

A view held privately and the same view stated to forty people are not the same object. What being watched does to a decision before you take it, and what stating it does to your ability to reverse it.

IntermediateGroupthinkCommitment bias
14 min

Running somebody else’s money

You handle your mother’s account because you are the one who knows how. Nobody ever agreed what it is for, what it is allowed to lose, or how she finds out when you are wrong — and each of those gaps has a predictable failure attached.

AdvancedAgency problemInvestment mandate
13 min

Watching somebody lose money you cannot stop them losing

A cousin trading weekly options with borrowed money. You can see it clearly and you have no authority at all. Which interventions change behaviour, which harden it, and how to work out what you actually owe here.

IntermediateLoss chasingHarm reduction
14 min

The plan somebody else has to run

Every arrangement you have built assumes an operator who is you, at your present sharpness, holding your phone. On the day that assumption fails, simplicity stops being an aesthetic preference and becomes the whole design.

AdvancedMental capacitySingle point of failure
Module 19

When nothing happens

The class of decisions whose success is invisible: eleven years of premiums and no claim, cover dropped in the one year it was needed, the near miss stored as evidence of skill, the holding chosen to lag, and how to review a decision that produced no result at all.

13 min

The year in which nothing went wrong

Eleven renewals, no claim, and a household doing the sum out loud at the dining table. The arithmetic they are doing is correct and the question it answers is the wrong one — because a protection decision is designed around the outcome that has just happened for the eleventh time.

IntermediateTerm insuranceExpected value
13 min

The cover that lapses in the year it was needed

Contract ended in March, health renewal falls in May, and the plan is to restart once the next job lands. The reason for stopping and the reason for needing it are the same event — and the restart does not put back what the lapse took away.

AdvancedWaiting periodHealth insurance
14 min

The near miss you filed as a success

A margin call at 2.40, funds arranged by 2.55, and a position that recovered over the following three weeks. He tells it as a story about holding his nerve. It was a sample from the tail that did not finish, and it is the most valuable thing that happened to him all year.

AdvancedTail riskMargin call
14 min

Holding the part that is meant to lag

Year three of a strong run, and every conversation about the portfolio is a conversation about the part that has done nothing. It is being judged against the best line on the page, which is the one comparison under which it can never look sensible.

AdvancedAsset allocationCorrelation
14 min

Keeping score when nothing happened

The annual review covers the four decisions that produced numbers and skips the six that produced nothing. Those six cannot be graded on results, because there are none — so they have to be graded on something written down before the year began.

AdvancedCounterfactualHindsight bias
Module 20

Between deciding and done

The interval nobody plans for: a decision going stale in your notes, a weekend that manufactures certainty without adding a fact, an instruction left standing by somebody you no longer are, a five-step plan abandoned after step one, and the gap between what you decided and what the record says you did.

13 min

The decision still sitting in your notes

On a Sunday in April you finish an annual report and write one line: buy this, ₹20,000. You act on it on the fifteenth of the following month, at a price 19 per cent higher, without rereading anything — because the decision was already made. The conclusion survived the six weeks. Everything that produced it did not.

IntermediateMargin of safetyAnchoring
13 min

The sixty-six hours in which you cannot act

The managing director resigns at twenty to seven on a Friday evening. The market opens at a quarter past nine on Monday. In between you can read everything, ask everybody and do nothing — and by Sunday night you are far more certain than you were on Friday, on exactly the same information.

IntermediatePre-open sessionCall auction
13 min

The instruction left standing by somebody you no longer are

In February you set a trigger to sell 250 shares at ₹880. In June the company sold the division that was the entire reason you owned it, and you decided to keep the rest for the income. In November the trigger fires — and the sale is made on the authority of a person who was overruled five months ago and never told.

IntermediateGTTCommitment device
14 min

The plan you only half executed

A five-step plan written on a Sunday, with step one done that evening and the rest not. What the portfolio holds in March is neither the old design nor the new one — it is a third thing nobody chose, and the half that got done was never the random half.

IntermediateRebalancingAsset allocation
14 min

What the record says you did

You place an order for 2,000 shares, watch it begin to fill and take a telephone call. Six months later every calculation you have made — concentration, allocation, the rebalancing sheet — has been built on 2,000 shares. You own 640.

IntermediateContract notePartial fill
Module 21

The decisions nobody took

The same rupee promised to two plans that both read as funded, an assumption that hardened into the family’s retirement number, a fact that lost a qualifier at every retelling until nothing in it could be checked, and a rule written after one bad afternoon that has been running unexamined ever since.

Module 22

The numbers you are shown

An asset with no quoted price and therefore no review, a fee that is deducted rather than paid and therefore never compared, an allocation measured against one account out of five, and the peak that quietly became the number your household grades itself against.

Module 23

The shape the question arrived in

A two-minute form that set a household’s equity share for four years and could not ask the two questions that mattered; the observation interval that decides what fraction of a fund’s history looks like a loss; the word "profit" doing work that no rupee limit was ever asked to do; and the difference between the return a fund earned and the return your instalments earned, which on a fund whose ten-year return was exactly zero comes out at about +6.5% a year down one path and about −7.6% down another.

14 min

The form that set your allocation

Eight multiple-choice questions on a Sunday in a calm month produced the words "moderately aggressive" and a suggested seventy per cent in equity. The household has run on that for four years. The form measured one of the three things that decide an allocation, and it was the one that moves with the market.

IntermediateRisk profilingRisk tolerance
14 min

How often you look

Two colleagues bought the same index fund in the same week. One has notifications on; the other gets a statement in the post twice a year. Six years later only one of them still owns it, and the difference is not the fund — it is what fraction of the numbers each of them was shown happened to be red.

IntermediateMyopic loss aversionObservation frequency
14 min

The money you have labelled profit

The portfolio shows ₹11,20,000 against a cost of ₹9,00,000, and the sentence that settles the argument is "I will only put in the profit". It sounds like a limit. It is the only sentence in the conversation with no arithmetic behind it, and the number it names is recomputed by the market every morning.

IntermediateHouse money effectBreak-even effect
15 min

The rate you were quoted, and the money that arrived monthly

A calculator turned ₹10,000 a month and "12%" into ₹23,00,000, and that figure has been on the household plan for a decade. It is the answer to a question nobody asked. Two paths with the identical ten-year fund return produce investor returns of about +6.5% a year and about −7.6%.

AdvancedCAGRXIRR
8 min

The ostrich effect: not looking when it hurts

People check their portfolios far more in a rising market than a falling one. Avoiding bad news is human — and, unusually for a bias, it is sometimes exactly the right thing to do. The trick is telling healthy inattention from harmful avoidance.

IntermediateOstrich effectLoss aversion

Risk & Psychology: frequently asked questions

What is position sizing?
Position sizing is deciding how much to buy so that a single trade going wrong cannot do serious damage. The usual method is to risk a fixed small percentage of your capital per trade — often 1–2% — and let the distance to your stop-loss determine the quantity, rather than picking a round number of shares. It is the most important risk control there is, because it caps the loss before you know whether you are right.
How much should I risk per trade?
A common and durable rule is to risk no more than 1–2% of your trading capital on any single trade, so that even a long losing streak leaves you able to continue. The exact figure is less important than the principle: the risk should be small enough that no one trade — and no run of several — can take you out of the game. A break-even calculation shows why: deep losses need disproportionately larger gains to recover.
Why do most traders lose money?
Most losses come from behaviour and sizing rather than from bad analysis — trading too large, using leverage, cutting winners while holding losers, revenge-trading after a loss, and paying costs and taxes that a small edge cannot cover. A positive-expectancy method still produces losing streaks, and the people who lose are usually the ones who abandon the process or over-bet during those streaks.
What is risk management in trading?
Risk management is the set of rules that keep any single loss, or a run of losses, survivable: position sizing, a predefined stop-loss, limiting total open risk across correlated positions, avoiding leverage, and sizing bets to your real edge. It is what lets a method with an ordinary win rate compound over time instead of being wiped out by one bad stretch.