IPO allotment odds
Work out your genuine chance of getting an IPO allotment, and settle the question of whether applying for more lots helps.
Runs entirely in your browserRuns entirely on your device — nothing you type is sent anywhere. Educational only, and not investment advice.
How to use this calculator
Each step names a control you will find on screen above.
- Retail oversubscription
How many times the retail portion was subscribed — the figure published on the exchange site at close, not the overall subscription number, which is usually much higher because of the institutional book.
- Lots you apply for
Change this and watch what happens to your odds. This is the part people get wrong.
- Read the per-application odds
When retail is oversubscribed, allotment moves to a lottery on applications, and one application is one ticket regardless of how many lots it holds.
- Compare against several single-lot applications
The panel shows the alternative: the same money spread across separate applications on different PANs, which is more tickets in the same draw.
Worked example: A 12× oversubscribed retail book
A popular IPO closes with the retail portion subscribed 12 times. One lot costs about ₹15,000. You have ₹60,000 to commit.
What to enter
- Retail oversubscription
- 12×
- Lots you apply for
- 4, then 1
What it shows you
- Chance per application
- ≈ 1 in 12
- Applying for 4 lots
- ≈ 8%
- Four separate 1-lot applications
- ≈ 29%
- Extra cost of the second route
- ₹0
about 8%
one application, one ticket, one lot if it wins
chance of at least one allotment
same money, four PANs
Where this is taught
A calculator gives you a number. These explain what the number means and when it misleads you.
- Market Basics12 minApplying to an IPO, in practiceASBA and UPI mandates, anchor investors, grey market premium, allotment odds and listing day — the mechanics and the traps.
- Market Basics12 minReading an IPO offer documentThree hundred pages, written by the company, containing every reason not to invest — in a section they are legally required to include.
- Market Basics9 minASBA: how your IPO money is blocked, not takenWhen you apply for an IPO the money never leaves your account until you are allotted shares. Understanding the block explains the refund that is not a refund, and why applying costs you almost nothing.
- Fundamental Analysis13 minSomebody else’s prospectus: mining a competitor’s DRHPA rival filing to list must disclose its industry, its cost structure and its own comparison against you. None of it is written for your benefit, which is what makes it useful.
- Market Basics12 minBuybacks, OFS and delisting: when the company comes to youSometimes it is the company or the promoter placing the order, not you. What each event means, when to participate, and what the acceptance ratio really decides.