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Fundamental Analysis

Screening, and writing a thesis you can be held to

How to narrow 5,000 companies to a shortlist worth reading about, and how to write down why you are buying — before you buy.

Fundamental AnalysisAdvanced12 min read
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There are over 5,000 listed companies in India and you can properly understand perhaps twenty. Screening is the process of getting from one number to the other without either missing everything interesting or drowning in candidates.

Building a screen that works

  1. 1
    Start with liquidity, always

    Filter out anything with average daily turnover below a threshold you can actually trade — perhaps ₹5 crore. This single filter removes most of the manipulable, uninvestable end of the market before you look at anything else.

  2. 2
    Add quality, measured over years not quarters

    ROCE above 15% for five consecutive years, positive operating cash flow every year, debt-to-equity below 1. Note the "every year" — a five-year average hides a disastrous one.

  3. 3
    Add growth, but modestly

    Revenue and profit growth above 10% compounded over five years. Set the bar low. Screening for 30% growth finds companies at the top of their cycle, which is exactly the wrong moment.

  4. 4
    Only then add valuation

    Valuation last, and loosely. Screening on cheapness first fills your list with value traps and cyclical peaks. Find good businesses, then ask what they cost.

  5. 5
    Adjust the filters per sector

    The debt filter excludes every bank and NBFC. Run financials as a separate screen with GNPA, NIM and ROE instead.

What a screen cannot see

  • Whether the moat is durable or about to be competed away.
  • Whether the promoter is honest.
  • Whether the growth came from acquisitions that will not repeat.
  • Whether a regulatory change is about to remove the business model.
  • Whether the accounting is real.

All five of those are the actual determinants of a long-term outcome, and none of them are numbers. That is why the screen produces a reading list, not a shopping list.

The thesis

Before buying anything, write three to five sentences. Not for anyone else — for the version of you who will read it in eighteen months when the stock is down 30% and you cannot remember why you own it.

What the thesis must contain
  1. 1
    What the business does, in one sentence

    If you cannot explain how it makes money without using the company’s own marketing language, you do not understand it yet.

  2. 2
    Why it is worth more than the price

    The specific reason. "Good company" is not a thesis. "The market is pricing 6% growth; the order book and capacity expansion support 14%" is.

  3. 3
    What would prove you wrong

    The most important line, and the one people skip. Name the specific, observable events — margin falling below X, the top client leaving, receivable days crossing 120. If nothing could prove you wrong, you have a belief, not a thesis.

  4. 4
    Your expected holding period

    Three years is a different commitment from three months and implies a completely different response to a 20% fall.

  5. 5
    What you will do if it falls 30%

    Decided now, in calm conditions. Buy more, hold, or exit — and the specific condition that distinguishes them.

A workable weekly routine

StepRoughly how longOutput
Run the screen5 minutesA list of 20–40 names
Reject on obvious grounds20 minutesDown to 8–10 — wrong sector, known governance issues, incomprehensible business
First-pass read of each90 minutes each2–3 worth going deeper on
Full annual report and thesis3–4 hours each0–1 you actually buy
Check yourself

Your screen returns 34 companies. What is the right next step?

Simple bhasha mein
Rishta dhoondhne wali list

Pehle filter lagate ho — sheher, umar, padhai. 500 mein se 10 bacche. Phir un 10 se milte ho. Screener bilkul wahi hai: usse shortlist banti hai, faisla nahi hota. Jo log screener ki ek line dekh ke paisa laga dete hain, woh biodata dekh ke shaadi kar rahe hain.

What to remember
  • Screen for liquidity first, quality second, growth third, valuation last.
  • Screens cannot see moats, management or accounting integrity — the things that actually matter.
  • Write a thesis before buying, including what would prove you wrong.
  • A thesis that cannot be falsified is a belief, not an analysis.
  • Most weeks the correct output is to buy nothing.
You reached the endMark it done and keep your streak going.
Up nextHow many companies can you actually follow?Previous: A first pass on a company, in one evening
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Common questions

Short, direct answers to what people ask about this topic.

what is a stock screener
A stock screener is a tool that filters thousands of listed companies down to a shortlist using numeric conditions you set — such as ROCE above 15%, positive operating cash flow and debt-to-equity below 1. It is a filter, not a decision: its only job is to produce a manageable list worth researching, and nobody should buy a stock simply because it appeared in one.
investment thesis meaning
An investment thesis is the written-down reason you are buying a company — what it does, why it will earn more over time, and crucially what would prove you wrong. Writing it before you buy guards against inventing reasons after the price moves, and it is what lets you tell later whether the story has genuinely broken or is merely out of favour.
how do I build a stock screen that works
A sensible order is to start with liquidity to remove untradeable names, then add quality measured over several years such as consistent ROCE and positive cash flow, then modest growth, and only then valuation. Screening on cheapness first tends to fill the list with value traps and cyclical peaks — the better sequence finds good businesses and then asks what they cost.
what makes a good investment thesis
A good thesis is falsifiable: it states clearly what evidence would prove it wrong, so you know in advance what a broken thesis looks like. It rests on the few things that actually drive the business rather than a long list of positives, and it is specific enough that you could be held to it later — vague optimism is not a thesis.