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Risk & Psychology

Writing your own rules down, before you need them

One page, written calmly, that decides in advance what you will do when you are not calm. It is the cheapest risk control available and almost nobody has one.

Risk & PsychologyIntermediate11 min read
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Every institution that manages money has an investment policy statement: a document setting out objectives, allocation, constraints and what triggers a change. Individuals, whose behaviour under stress is far less constrained, almost never write one — and then make their largest decisions in the worst possible conditions.

Think of it like this
The turnaround time

Climbers agree before setting out that they turn back at two o'clock, summit or not. The rule is made in a warm room with oxygen and clear judgement, precisely because it will have to be obeyed at altitude, exhausted, with the summit in sight. Most accidents happen to people who renegotiated it up there.

In the market

Your policy statement is the turnaround time. It is written on a calm Sunday so that a version of you with far worse judgement has something to obey in March 2020.

What goes on the page

Six sections, one page
  1. 1
    What this money is for, and when

    Specific goals with dates. "Retirement in 2049", "school fees from 2032", "no fixed purpose". The horizon determines everything downstream, and money without a stated purpose gets spent on whatever feels urgent.

  2. 2
    The allocation, with bands

    "65% equity, 25% debt, 10% gold, rebalanced if any sleeve drifts more than 7 points." The bands are what make it a rule rather than a preference — and rebalancing with new money first avoids the tax.

  3. 3
    What you will and will not hold

    Index funds, direct equity up to a stated share, no leverage, no F&O, no unlisted. Writing the exclusions matters more than the inclusions; they are what you will be tempted by.

  4. 4
    The rules for buying and selling

    How a new position gets in — what you must have written before buying — and the specific conditions under which you exit. This is where a thesis-break rule belongs.

  5. 5
    What you will do in a fall

    Stated in advance, in numbers. "If the index falls 20%, I continue the SIP and deploy a third of the reserve. At 30%, another third. I do not sell equity to buy debt during a fall." Decide it while it is hypothetical.

  6. 6
    Review date and what may change it

    Annually, plus on a genuine life event — a marriage, a child, a job loss, an inheritance. Explicitly not on market movement, which is the whole point.

What makes a rule usable

Two versions of the same intention
Usable
  • "Equity 60–72%; rebalance outside that band"
  • "Sell if gross margin falls below 28% for two consecutive quarters"
  • "No single stock above 8% of the portfolio at cost"
  • "Review on 1 April, and after any life event"
  • "New ideas wait two weeks before any purchase"
Not usable
  • "Stay mostly in equity"
  • "Sell if the business deteriorates"
  • "Do not over-concentrate"
  • "Review regularly"
  • "Avoid impulsive decisions"

Two practical additions

  • A cooling-off rule. No new position acted on within two weeks of first hearing about it. This single line removes almost every tip-driven purchase, because almost none survive fourteen days of not being exciting.
  • A written pre-mortem for each holding. Two sentences: why I own it, and what would prove me wrong. Dated. When you revisit it in year three, you will discover whether you were right for your reasons or right by accident — and those teach opposite lessons.
  • A limit on how often you may look. If a weekly check produces no action, it is a cost with no benefit. Deciding the frequency in advance is easier than resisting the app each evening.
  • Where the document lives. Somewhere your partner can find it, along with the list of what exists and where. A policy nobody else can read is a plan with one point of failure.
Check yourself

The index falls 28% over four months. Your written policy says to continue the SIP and deploy a third of your reserve at 20% and another third at 30%. Every commentator is saying it will fall further. What is the policy for?

Simple bhasha mein
Do baje wapas mudna hai

Pahaad chadhne wale pehle hi tay kar lete hain — do baje mudenge, choti mile ya na mile. Yeh niyam garam kamre mein banta hai, kyunki maanna upar hai, thake hue, choti saamne dekh ke. Aapki likhi hui policy wahi do baja hai — shaant Sunday ko likho, taaki March 2020 wale aap ko sirf follow karna pade.

What to remember
  • Decide once, calmly, so that stress becomes an implementation problem.
  • Bands and numbers make a rule; adjectives make a preference.
  • Write the exclusions — they are what you will be tempted by.
  • Constrain the behaviour your own journal actually shows.
  • Review on the date and on life events, never on market movement.
You reached the endMark it done and keep your streak going.
Up nextWhat the money is actually forPrevious: The edge of what you actually understand
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Common questions

Short, direct answers to what people ask about this topic.

investment policy statement meaning
An investment policy statement is a short written document setting out what your money is for, your target asset allocation, what you will and will not hold, the rules for buying and selling, and what you will do in a market fall. Every institution that manages money keeps one; individuals almost never write one. Its purpose is to make the decisions once, calmly, so that a stressful market leaves you with an implementation problem rather than a judgement problem.
the range an asset class may drift within before you rebalance is called a
A rebalancing band. Writing “65% equity, rebalanced if the sleeve drifts more than 7 percentage points either way” is what turns an intention into a rule — “stay mostly in equity” is only a preference, because nothing in it tells you when to act. Directing fresh contributions to the underweight sleeve first is the usual way to bring the allocation back without triggering a taxable sale.
what should a personal investment policy statement contain
Six things, on a single page: what the money is for and by when; the asset allocation with rebalancing bands; what you will and will not hold; the rules for entering and exiting a position; exactly what you will do if the market falls 20% or 30%; and the review date. The exclusions do the most work of any section, because they are the things you will be tempted by later.
should I rewrite my investment policy during a market crash
Rewriting a policy during the event it was written for is how policies fail — the entire point of writing it on a calm day is that it is already the instruction for this one. “Commentators are bearish” during a 28% fall is not new information; it is the defining feature of a 28% fall, and it was foreseeable when the rule was set. A policy is revised on its review date and on genuine life events, not on price movement.
how often should you review your investment policy statement
Once a year on a fixed date, plus on any genuine life event — a marriage, a child, a job loss, an inheritance, or a change in when the money is needed. Explicitly not on market movement, which is the behaviour the document exists to constrain. Fixing the date in advance is much easier than deciding each time whether the current news counts as a reason.