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Technical Analysis

Charting a fund that trades

You could not trade the index, so you charted the exchange-traded fund instead. It has an order book, a candle and a volume bar, and it also has a second price published all day that the chart does not show — and the gap between them is where your stop went.

Technical AnalysisAdvanced13 min read
Browse Technical Analysis(172)

An earlier lesson established that the index itself cannot be transacted: it has no order book, no bid, no offer and no volume, because it is a number computed from other instruments. The obvious answer is to chart the fund instead. An index ETF has everything the index lacks — a book, a last traded price, candles, a volume bar — and on most days its chart and the index’s chart are the same shape laid over one another. Then one morning your stop is taken out three-quarters of a per cent below a level the index never went near, the fund closes the day back where it started, and the wick that removed you appears on no other chart in the market.

The reason is that an exchange-traded fund has two prices at all times, and a chart only ever draws one of them.

Think of it like this
The seat and the journey

On a festival weekend the fare on a private bus and the actual cost of running the route come apart. The route has not changed, the diesel has not changed, but with everybody trying to reach home on the same evening the seat sells for far more than the journey costs. Another operator putting more buses on that route is what brings the fare back down. If, for whatever reason, no operator can add a bus, the fare stays high for as long as the crowd lasts.

In the market

The traded price of an exchange-traded fund is the fare. The value of the basket it holds is the cost of the journey. New units being created is the extra bus. When units can be created freely the two stay close; when creation is blocked, the fare can stand well away from the journey for a long time, and nothing on the price chart says which of the two you are looking at.

Three numbers, and the chart shows one

The numberWhat it isWhen you see it
The traded priceWhat somebody paid for a unit in the exchange’s order book. This is the only one of the three that your candle, your indicator and your stop are built from.Continuously, all session.
The [[Indicative NAV]]The value of the underlying basket, computed and disseminated through the session at short intervals. It is what a unit is worth at that moment, as distinct from what it is changing hands at.Continuously, all session — but usually on the fund house’s or exchange’s page rather than on your chart.
The end-of-day [[NAV]]The fund’s official net asset value, struck once after the close. Creations and redemptions happen against this, and it is the number the fund’s published returns are computed on.Once, after the session.

What holds the traded price to the basket

Nothing in the exchange’s rules requires an ETF to trade at the value of its basket. What normally keeps the two together is an arbitrage that a specific set of participants is set up to perform.

  1. 1
    Units are made and unmade in large blocks

    A fund does not issue units one at a time on the exchange. It creates and redeems them in a fixed large block — a Creation unit — in exchange for the underlying basket or its cash equivalent, at the official NAV.

  2. 2
    A designated participant does the swapping

    An Authorised participant, typically a broking or institutional firm appointed by the fund, is the participant who does this. Retail investors deal only in the secondary market.

  3. 3
    A premium invites creation

    If units are changing hands above the value of the basket, the participant can buy the basket, deliver it, receive new units and sell them on the exchange. That selling is what pushes the traded price back down towards the basket.

  4. 4
    A discount invites redemption

    If units are changing hands below the basket, the participant buys units on the exchange, hands them back and receives the basket. That buying is what pulls the traded price back up.

  5. 5
    And the whole thing is conditional

    The mechanism works when the participant can execute both legs, is permitted to create, and finds the gap wide enough to be worth the trouble. Remove any one of those and the link between the two prices weakens or stops.

The four situations where it comes apart

  • The first minutes of the session. The basket’s own constituents are still finding their opening prices, and the fund’s quotes may be thin or absent while that happens. Prints in this window can sit well away from any sensible value, and they become the day’s high or low on your chart permanently.
  • A violent move. The wider and faster the move, the harder it is for the participant to execute the basket leg, so the gap between price and basket widens exactly when the chart looks most dramatic. The wick that results is a liquidity event, not a rejection of a level.
  • A thinly traded fund. Many listed ETFs trade a few hundred units a day with a wide spread and a Market maker quoting a token size. Every technique that reads participation — volume confirmation, absorption, breakout on volume — has almost nothing to attach to, because the volume is units of a fund rather than interest in the underlying.
  • Creation is interrupted. If for any reason fresh units cannot be made — a regulatory limit on what the scheme may invest in, a suspension of subscriptions, an underlying market that is shut — the arbitrage that closes a premium is switched off. A premium can then persist for weeks. It is a statement about the supply of units and carries no information about the index at all.
Worked example
Reading a wick on an ETF chart
An index ETF whose units are worth about ₹247 by the basket
The index at 9:16A mild, unremarkable openDown about 0.3% from the previous close
The fund’s first printsAbout 1.6% below the basket. Small quantity, thin book, quotes not yet properly establishedA trade at ₹243.10
What the daily candle now permanently recordsIt will be the low of the day on every chart of this fund for as long as the chart existsA low of ₹243.10
Where a stop “below yesterday’s support” was sittingTaken out, at a price the basket was never near, by a print that existed because nobody was quoting₹244.50
Where the fund traded by 9:45Back in line with the basket, once the constituents had opened and the participant could quote₹246.80
What the index chart shows for the same minutesThe index is computed from the constituents, so it never printed a 1.6% dislocation to be seenNothing unusual at all
Both charts are accurate and they are recording different things. The index chart records what the constituent prices implied; the fund chart records what somebody actually paid for a unit in a book that was not yet properly quoted. A support level drawn at ₹243.10 is a level in the order book’s history and not in the market’s, and a stop placed inside that region is a stop exposed to a mechanism rather than to a view. The practical rule that falls out of this is short: read the index for structure, and the fund for execution. Take your levels from the series that cannot be dislocated, and use the fund’s own chart to judge whether you can transact near them.

A one-minute check before drawing anything on an ETF chart

  1. 1
    Compare the traded price with the indicative NAV

    Both are published during the session. A gap of a few basis points is ordinary; a gap of a per cent or more is telling you that the arbitrage is not currently doing its job.

  2. 2
    Look at the spread and at both sides of the book

    A wide spread, or size on one side and a token quantity on the other, means the prints you are about to draw levels on were produced by very few decisions.

  3. 3
    Check whether the underlying market is open

    For a fund holding overseas securities the basket is stale for most of the Indian session, so the fund’s intraday chart is a price for a value that is not being updated.

  4. 4
    Check whether the scheme is accepting fresh money

    If creations are suspended, treat a persistent premium as a fact about units rather than as a chart signal, and expect it to unwind when creations resume rather than when the index turns.

  5. 5
    Decide which series your rules are written on

    Write it down once, per instrument. Levels from the index, execution on the fund, is one coherent choice. Everything on the fund is another. Silently mixing them is what produces the stop nobody can explain afterwards.

Simple bhasha mein
Counter band hai, black chaalu hai

Ticket ka asli daam ₹200 chhapa hai, par bahar black mein ₹500 chal raha hai — kyunki counter band hai aur nayi ticket nikal hi nahi rahi. Counter khulte hi black ka rate girta hai. ETF mein bhi do daam ek saath chalte hain: ek woh jispe unit khareedi-bechi ja rahi hai (yahi aapke chart pe candle banta hai), aur doosra iNAV — jo andar rakhi cheezon ki asli keemat hai, alag page pe har thodi der mein chhapti rehti hai. Dono ko paas rakhta hai sirf ek kaam: koi bada participant nayi unit bana ke bech de. Jis din woh kaam ruk jaaye — nayi unit ban hi na sakti ho — us din daam hafton tak upar tik sakta hai, aur chart pe woh badhta hua line index ki taraqqi nahi, unit ki kami dikha raha hota hai. Chart pe line kheenchne se pehle ek baar iNAV se daam mila lo.

What to remember
  • An ETF has a traded price and a basket value at the same time, and your chart draws only the first.
  • The two are held together by creation and redemption performed by an authorised participant — a trade somebody has to want to do, not a rule.
  • The link is weakest at the open, in violent moves, in thin funds, and whenever fresh units cannot be created.
  • A premium or discount is a momentary price difference; tracking error is a statistic about the fund over time. They are not the same claim.
  • Take structure from the index, which cannot be dislocated, and use the fund’s chart to judge whether you can transact near it.
You reached the endMark it done and keep your streak going.
Up nextThe chart somebody else drewPrevious: The time axis counts sessions, not days
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Common questions

Short, direct answers to what people ask about this topic.

indicative nav meaning in etf
The indicative NAV, or iNAV, is the running value of the basket an exchange-traded fund holds, published through the trading session so buyers can see what a unit is currently worth. It sits alongside the traded price you see on the chart, and the two are different numbers — the chart draws only what units changed hands at. The official end-of-day NAV is a third number, struck after the close, and it is the one at which units are created and redeemed.
when an etf trades above the value of the basket it holds it is said to be trading at a
Premium — and below it, a discount. Nothing in the exchange’s rules forces the two together; what normally closes the gap is an arbitrage in which an authorised participant delivers the basket to receive fresh units and sells them, or buys units on the exchange and hands them back for the basket. Because that is a trade somebody has to want to do rather than a rule, the premium can persist whenever the trade is blocked or not worth the trouble.
why did my etf stop get hit when the index never fell that far
Because your stop was sitting on the fund’s order book, not on the index, and an ETF can print well away from the value of its basket when the arbitrage that ties them together is not working. That happens most in the opening minutes while the constituents are still finding their prices, during violent moves when the basket leg is hard to execute, and in thinly traded funds where a handful of orders set the print. The resulting wick is a liquidity event in one order book rather than a move in the index.
is an etf premium the same as tracking error
No. Tracking error is a statistic about the fund measured over time — how far its own returns have drifted from the index’s, driven by costs, cash drag and how faithfully the basket is held. A premium or discount is a momentary difference between the traded price and the value of the basket on the same day. A fund can track its index tightly and still trade at a wide premium on a given morning.
why do some international etfs in india trade at a large premium
Usually because fresh units cannot be created. Indian mutual funds face an overall cap on how much they may invest overseas, and when schemes have had to stop accepting fresh money the listed units have continued trading with no way to make more — so demand pushes the price above the basket and the arbitrage that would normally close the gap is unavailable. A premium of that kind is a fact about unit supply, and it tends to unwind when creations resume rather than when the underlying index turns.