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Technical Analysis

Factors: what actually explains a return

Momentum, value, quality, size and low volatility. Decades of evidence say most of what looks like stock-picking skill is exposure to one of these — and they can be bought directly.

Technical AnalysisAdvanced13 min read
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When a fund beats the index, the natural explanation is skill. A large body of research says something less flattering and more useful: most outperformance is explained by persistent exposure to a handful of characteristics, and once you account for those, very little unexplained skill remains. The characteristics are called factors, and you can now buy them directly.

Think of it like this
The recipe behind the taste

A dish tastes distinctive and you assume the cook has a gift. A trained palate identifies it: more tamarind, less oil, a longer bhuna. Not magic — a recipe. Knowing the recipe does not diminish the cook; it means you can decide whether you actually want that much tamarind.

In the market

A fund's returns decompose the same way. "Thirty per cent momentum exposure, twenty per cent smallcap tilt" is not an accusation. It tells you what you are actually buying, and whether you could buy it more cheaply.

The five that survive scrutiny

FactorWhat it buysWhy it may workWhen it hurts
MomentumWhatever has risen most over 6–12 monthsUnder-reaction to news; herdingSharp reversals — crashes badly at turning points
ValueLow price relative to earnings, book or cash flowOver-reaction to bad news; a genuine risk premiumCan lag for a decade, as it did through the 2010s
QualityHigh return on capital, low debt, stable earningsMarkets underpay for durabilityLags badly in sharp recoveries from a bottom
SizeSmaller companiesIlliquidity and information premiaBrutal in a risk-off market; 2018 in India
Low volatilityStocks that move leastLeverage constraints push demand into risky namesUnderperforms in strong bull markets

Momentum, and why it is the awkward one

Momentum is the most consistently documented factor across markets and decades, and it has no comfortable explanation. Buying what has already risen contradicts every instinct about buying low. It also does something the others do not: it fails catastrophically at inflection points, because the portfolio is by construction full of whatever led the last regime.

Worked example
How a momentum index is actually built
A typical NIFTY momentum methodology
UniverseLiquidity is a precondition, not a preferenceThe largest 200 or so listed companies
ScoreAveraged, and risk-adjusted by volatility6-month and 12-month returns
Skip the most recent monthVery short-term returns mean-revert and would work against youStandard practice
SelectWeighted by score and free-float market capTop 30 by score
RebalanceMore often raises turnover and costs faster than it raises returnsTwice a year
ResultWhich is exactly what it is meant to be, including at the topA portfolio of recent leaders
Nothing here requires a view on any company. That is the value and the danger — the method is entirely mechanical, so it will hold the leaders of a bubble with as much conviction as it held the leaders of a genuine trend.

Where this leaves an individual investor

  • Know what you already own. A portfolio of consumer franchises bought for their quality is a quality-factor bet. That is fine — it is worth knowing it is a bet on one factor rather than a diversified portfolio.
  • Factor index funds exist in India now. Momentum, value, quality, low-volatility and alpha indices all have tracking funds and ETFs at low cost. A tilt no longer requires stock selection.
  • Combining beats choosing. Two or three factors held together produce a smoother ride than the best single one, because their bad years rarely coincide.
  • Rebalancing is where the discipline lives. A factor allocation only works if you hold the lagging factor through the years it lags — which is the whole difficulty, and the reason most people abandon them at the worst moment.
  • Costs matter more than for a plain index fund. Momentum has high turnover by construction. Check the expense ratio and the tracking difference, not just the index's backtested return.
Check yourself

A fund has beaten the NIFTY 50 by four points a year for six years. Analysis shows a persistent tilt to quality and low volatility. What follows?

Simple bhasha mein
Swaad ke peechhe ki recipe

Sabzi mein alag swaad hai, lagta hai cook ka haath hai. Jaankaar batata hai — imli zyada, tel kam, bhuna lamba. Jaadu nahi, recipe hai. Fund ka return bhi aise hi tootta hai: "tees percent momentum, bees percent smallcap". Yeh insult nahi hai; yeh batata hai ki aap asal mein kya khareed rahe ho.

What to remember
  • Five factors — momentum, value, quality, size, low volatility — explain most return differences.
  • None works always; their bad periods do not coincide, which is the point.
  • Momentum is the best documented and fails hardest at inflection points.
  • Indian factor index funds now let you buy a tilt without picking stocks.
  • Treat an Indian backtest with far more suspicion than long-run live data.
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Common questions

Short, direct answers to what people ask about this topic.

smart beta meaning in indian mutual funds
Smart beta is an index fund built on a rule other than market capitalisation — ranking and weighting stocks by a characteristic such as momentum, value, quality, size or low volatility. It sits between a plain index fund and an active fund: the exposure is mechanical and published in advance, so costs stay close to indexing while the return pattern deliberately differs from the NIFTY 50. In India these are sold as factor index funds and ETFs.
the factor that buys whatever has risen most over the past six to twelve months is called
Momentum. A momentum index scores stocks on their 6-month and 12-month returns, usually risk-adjusted by volatility and skipping the most recent month, because very short-term returns tend to mean-revert and would work against the score. It is the most consistently documented factor across markets and decades, and also the one that fails hardest at turning points, because by construction it holds whatever led the previous regime.
how many stocks does a nifty momentum index hold
Thirty. A typical NSE momentum methodology starts from the largest 200 or so listed companies for liquidity, scores them on risk-adjusted 6-month and 12-month returns, and selects the top 30, weighted by score and free-float market capitalisation. It is rebalanced twice a year — rebalancing more often raises turnover and cost faster than it raises return.
how do I get momentum exposure without picking stocks myself
By holding a fund that tracks a published momentum index instead of selecting shares. India now has index funds and ETFs tracking momentum, value, quality, low-volatility and alpha indices, so a factor tilt no longer requires stock selection. Because a momentum index turns over heavily by construction, the expense ratio and tracking difference matter more here than for a plain NIFTY 50 fund, and the worst peak-to-trough fall in the index’s history is a more informative number than its annualised return.
is buying only high quality companies a factor bet
Yes — a portfolio built entirely of high-return-on-capital, low-debt franchises is concentrated exposure to the quality factor rather than a diversified portfolio. That is worth knowing rather than avoiding, because quality characteristically lags in sharp recoveries from a market bottom. A stretch of underperformance in that phase is the factor behaving as documented, not necessarily the companies deteriorating.