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Fundamental Analysis

Currency inside the business

A company can look purely domestic and be substantially a currency bet. Where the exposure is disclosed, and why the net figure matters more than revenue.

Fundamental AnalysisAdvanced11 min read
Browse Fundamental Analysis(169)

"IT companies benefit from a weak rupee" is the version everyone knows, and it is too simple. What matters is the net position — dollars coming in, dollars going out, and dollars owed — and a company earning entirely in rupees can still be heavily exposed.

The four exposures

TypeExampleEffect of a weaker rupee
Revenue in foreign currencyIT services, pharma exportsPositive — each dollar is worth more rupees
Costs in foreign currencyImported raw material, crudeNegative — inputs cost more
Foreign currency borrowingsECB, dollar bondsNegative — both interest and principal cost more
Foreign subsidiariesOverseas operationsTranslation effect on reported consolidated numbers
Think of it like this
Dollar mein kamai, dollar mein kharcha

Someone earns in dollars and spends in dollars while living abroad. The exchange rate barely affects them. Their cousin earns in rupees and pays a dollar loan — the same rate move matters enormously.

In the market

Same principle. What matters is the net, not the gross, and the gross is what gets quoted.

The exposure people miss

Worked example
A "purely domestic" company
A domestic manufacturer, all revenue in rupees
RevenueLooks entirely insulated100% in rupees
Imported raw materialPriced in dollars38% of cost of goods
Foreign currency loanTaken when rates were lower abroad$60 million ECB
Rupee weakens 8%Both hit the same yearInput costs rise, loan grows
Reported effectOn a company with no export revenue at allMargin compression plus a forex loss
A "domestic" business took a double hit from a currency it never earns in. Reading only the revenue geography would have entirely missed it — and this is a common Indian pattern, because dollar borrowing has often been cheaper than rupee borrowing.
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Unhedged foreign currency debt grows in rupee terms when the rupee weakens. The leverage ratio worsens without a single new rupee being borrowed.

Where it is disclosed

Three notes to read together
  1. 1
    Foreign currency exposure note

    Mandatory disclosure of unhedged exposure by currency. This is the single most useful number and it is rarely quoted anywhere.

  2. 2
    Derivative and hedging note

    What proportion is hedged, using what instruments, for how long. Hedges expire — a fully hedged company today can be exposed next year.

  3. 3
    Borrowings note

    How much debt is in foreign currency. Cheap abroad often means unhedged, which is where the risk sits.

Check yourself

A company earns all revenue in rupees but imports 40% of its inputs and has an unhedged dollar loan. What happens when the rupee weakens?

Simple bhasha mein
Dollar mein kamai, dollar mein kharcha

Jo bahar rehta hai aur dollar mein kamata-kharchta hai, usko rate se farak nahi padta. Uska cousin rupee mein kamata hai aur dollar loan bharta hai — usko poora farak padta hai. Company mein bhi net dekho, gross nahi. Poori kamai rupee mein ho phir bhi dollar loan aur import se maar pad sakti hai.

What to remember
  • What matters is net currency exposure, not the revenue geography.
  • A natural hedge exists when foreign revenue and foreign costs offset.
  • A purely domestic company can be heavily exposed through imports and dollar debt.
  • Hedges expire — fully hedged today does not mean hedged next year.
  • Track net unhedged exposure as a percentage of net worth; it is disclosed and rarely quoted.
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Common questions

Short, direct answers to what people ask about this topic.

natural hedge meaning in business
A natural hedge exists when a company’s foreign currency inflows and outflows offset each other, so exchange rate moves largely cancel out without any derivative being bought. An exporter that also imports most of its raw material has far less net currency exposure than its export revenue alone suggests. It is the main reason judging forex risk from the revenue line gets the direction wrong so often.
borrowings raised abroad by an Indian company in foreign currency are known as
External Commercial Borrowings, usually shortened to ECB — loans raised outside India in foreign currency under the framework the Reserve Bank of India lays down. They have often carried a lower headline interest rate than rupee debt, which is what makes them attractive. The rate is not the whole cost: if the borrowing is unhedged, a weaker rupee raises both the interest and the principal in rupee terms.
where does a company disclose its unhedged forex exposure
In the foreign currency exposure note of the annual report, which sets out unhedged exposure by currency, alongside the derivative and hedging note showing what proportion is covered and for how long. Read the borrowings note with them to see how much of the debt is denominated in foreign currency. A single figure worth extracting from all three is net unhedged exposure as a percentage of net worth.
does a weak rupee always help Indian IT companies
Not automatically — what matters is the net position, because costs and borrowings can also sit in foreign currency. For an exporter with mostly rupee costs a weaker rupee does lift reported margins, but that is a currency effect rather than operational improvement, so a margin beat in a quarter the rupee fell may say nothing about execution. Firms with large overseas delivery centres carry costs in the same currency they bill in, which offsets part of the gain.
can a company with no exports still lose money on currency
Yes — exposure runs through costs and borrowings, not only through revenue. A domestic manufacturer that imports a large share of its raw material and carries an unhedged dollar loan takes two hits when the rupee weakens: input costs rise and the rupee value of the loan grows, both in the same year. That is a familiar Indian pattern, because foreign currency borrowing has frequently looked cheaper on the headline rate.