Skip to content
Fundamental Analysis

Forensic accounting: finding what the numbers hide

Beyond the basic red flags — the specific ratios and disclosures that have preceded most Indian corporate failures.

Fundamental AnalysisAdvanced13 min read
Browse Fundamental Analysis(169)

You already know the headline warnings: profit without cash flow, ballooning receivables, heavy promoter pledging. This lesson goes a layer deeper into the specific techniques used to make a deteriorating business look healthy — and how each one shows up.

The accrual ratio

Accrual ratio = (Net profit − Operating cash flow) ÷ Average total assets
Near zero
Profits are converting to cash — healthy
Persistently high
A growing share of reported profit exists only on paper

Example: This formalises the profit-versus-cash-flow check into one number you can track across five years and compare against peers. A ratio that rises steadily while the company reports record profits is one of the most reliable warnings available.

Six techniques and how each shows up

TechniqueWhat it doesWhere it surfaces
Aggressive revenue recognitionBooks revenue before the cash is earned or collectable — long-dated contracts, channel stuffingReceivable days rising far faster than revenue; unbilled revenue growing as a share of sales
Capitalising operating costsTreats a routine expense as an asset, so it never hits the profit lineIntangibles or capital work-in-progress growing without a matching increase in output or capacity
Understating provisionsDelays recognising bad debts or inventory obsolescenceProvision coverage falling while receivables age; inventory days rising with flat sales
Related-party circularitySales routed through promoter-controlled entities that never really payThe related-party note; large receivables from group companies
Subsidiary opacityLosses and debt parked in subsidiaries, especially overseas onesA large gap between standalone and consolidated profit; many subsidiaries with no operational logic
Frequent one-offsEvery year has an "exceptional" item that happens to flatter the resultCompare five years of reported profit to profit excluding exceptionals

The governance signals

  1. Auditor resignation mid-term. Auditors rarely resign for trivial reasons, and the market routinely under-reacts on the first day. Companies must disclose the resignation letter — read it.
  2. A change of auditor to a much smaller firm. Moving from a large firm to an obscure one after a disagreement is a signal in itself.
  3. CFO turnover. The person who signs the accounts leaving repeatedly, especially at short notice, is worth noticing.
  4. Delayed results filing. Exchanges publish the deadline. Companies that consistently file at the last moment, or seek extensions, are telling you something about their close process.
  5. Qualified opinion or an emphasis of matter. A formal statement that the auditors were not fully satisfied. It is in the audit report, in plain language.

The practical routine

  1. 1
    Plot five years of net profit against operating cash flow

    Two minutes. If they diverge persistently, stop and investigate before doing anything else.

  2. 2
    Plot receivable days and inventory days over the same period

    Both lengthening while revenue grows is the classic pre-collapse signature.

  3. 3
    Compare standalone to consolidated

    A large and growing gap means the interesting part is in the subsidiaries.

  4. 4
    Read the related-party note and contingent liabilities

    Two notes, ten minutes, and the place where value most often leaves quietly.

  5. 5
    Check the auditor and the audit opinion

    Same firm as three years ago? Unmodified opinion? What did Key Audit Matters flag?

◆ Checkpoint

Forensic checks

3 questions. Answers are revealed once you submit all of them.

1.A company reports rising profits for four years while its accrual ratio climbs steadily. What does that mean?

2.Why does a large gap between standalone and consolidated profit matter?

3.An auditor resigns mid-term. How should you treat it?

0 of 3 answered
Simple bhasha mein
Hisaab mein kuch toh gadbad hai

Dukandaar keh raha hai bikri double ho gayi, par godown mein maal bhi double pada hai aur grahak ne paisa bhi nahi diya. Kahin na kahin jhol hai. Forensic accounting bas numbers ke beech ka rishta dekhna hai — bikri badhe toh cash bhi badhna chahiye, warna sawaal poocho.

What to remember
  • You cannot detect every fraud — you only need to avoid enough of them.
  • The accrual ratio turns the profit-versus-cash check into one trackable number.
  • A large standalone-versus-consolidated gap means the story is in the subsidiaries.
  • Auditor resignations and qualified opinions are high-signal and public.
  • Three red flags pointing the same way is a pattern. The response is no position.
You reached the endMark it done and keep your streak going.
Up nextThe Altman Z-score: a bankruptcy early-warningPrevious: Capital allocation: what management does with the cash
Finished this lesson?

Mark it done to track your progress through the curriculum.

Common questions

Short, direct answers to what people ask about this topic.

accrual ratio meaning in accounting
The accrual ratio is net profit minus operating cash flow, divided by average total assets — one number for how much of reported profit has not turned into cash. Near zero means earnings are converting properly; a ratio that climbs steadily while the company reports record profits means a growing share of that profit exists only on paper. Tracked across five years and compared against peers, it is one of the more reliable early warnings available from published accounts.
what does it mean when an auditor resigns from a listed indian company
It usually means the auditor was unwilling to sign off on something, because resigning mid-engagement carries real professional and reputational cost. Indian listed companies must disclose the resignation to the exchanges together with the reasons the auditor gave, and the auditor separately files an intimation with the Registrar of Companies. The market frequently under-reacts on the first day, which makes the disclosure itself more informative than the price move.
a company that records a routine operating expense as an asset instead is said to be
Capitalising the expense. The cost moves onto the balance sheet and is written off slowly through depreciation or amortisation rather than hitting profit in the year it was incurred, so reported earnings look higher than the underlying economics. It surfaces as intangibles or capital work-in-progress growing without any matching increase in capacity or output.
why is consolidated profit lower than standalone profit
Because standalone accounts cover the parent company alone while consolidated accounts add in the subsidiaries, so a large gap means the subsidiaries are losing money or carrying debt the parent is not. Subsidiaries, particularly overseas ones, are a common place for inconvenient losses and borrowings to sit. Consolidated accounts are the only complete picture, and a gap that is large and widening is worth tracing to the specific entities causing it.
how often does an indian listed company have to change its auditor
Under the Companies Act, a listed company cannot appoint an individual as auditor for more than one term of five consecutive years, or an audit firm for more than two consecutive terms of five years — so the firm rotates after ten years, followed by a cooling-off period. A change made well before that deadline, especially a move from a large firm to a much smaller and less known one, is a governance signal rather than routine rotation.